Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
